UPDATED FORECAST: Winter storm watches issued with 6 to 12 inches of snow in latest forecast
Don’t be alarmed if your social media feeds explode with scary-sounding weather terms like “bomb cyclone,” “bombogenesis” or “bombing out” for a potentially strong winter storm in the forecast this weekend.
Those are actual terms used by meteorologists when storm systems rapidly intensify as cold air collides with warm air.
And the coastal storm that’s expected to form in the southeastern United States this Friday — potentially bringing heavy snow and fierce winds to New Jersey and other eastern states — might become strong enough to qualify as a bomb cyclone, according to forecasters from AccuWeather and the National Weather Service.
A "bomb cyclone" is a storm system that rapidly intensifies as cold air collides with warm air. The intensification process is technically called bombogenesis, which is how the term bomb cyclone originated.AccuWeather
“It actually does look likely that it will be a bomb cyclone,” Paul Fitzsimmons, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s forecast office in New Jersey, said Wednesday morning. “The confidence is pretty high that this storm is going to develop and is going to be significant, and is likely to become a bomb cyclone.”
However, big questions remain over exactly when and where the storm will be when it intensifies, said Tiffany Fortier, a meteorologist at the weather service’s regional office in New York. She said the location and the timing of the strengthening will play a huge role in how much snow will fall in New Jersey, the New York City region and also up in New England.
“It’s really an annoying waiting game,” Fortier said, noting that computer guidance models have been spitting out different projections during the past few days and still aren’t coming to a consensus as of early Wednesday. “It’s a wait-and-see thing.”
A snowstorm that's expected to hit New Jersey starting Friday, Jan. 28, and into Saturday could include significant snowfall totals, particularly along the Jersey Shore. Forecasters continue to closely monitor the potential storm track and where the storm might intensify into a "bomb cyclone."
Technical definition
This is how the National Weather Service describes bombogenesis and bomb cyclones:
“Bombogenesis, a popular term used by meteorologists, occurs when a mid-latitude cyclone rapidly intensifies, dropping at least 24 millibars over 24 hours. A millibar measures atmospheric pressure. This can happen when a cold air mass collides with a warm air mass, such as air over warm ocean waters. The formation of this rapidly strengthening weather system is a process called bombogenesis, which creates what is known as a bomb cyclone.”
Interpretation
Basically, any storm system in our region of the Atlantic that rapidly strengthens with a specific drop in pressure during a 24-hour period can be called a bomb cyclone.
Although a bomb cyclone can occur in the spring or autumn, it is more common during the winter season, when nor’easters tend to develop along the Atlantic coast and quickly intensify into a major snowstorm or a blizzard.
Bomb cyclones rarely form in the summer, according to the National Weather Service, which notes this weather term is not used for hurricanes and other storm systems that originate in the tropics. When hurricanes strengthen — when their central pressure drops and their wind speeds get stronger — the process is typically known as “rapid intensification.”
A "bomb cyclone" is a storm system that rapidly intensifies as cold air collides with warm air. Pictured here is a snow-covered street in Trenton during the big blizzard of January 1996.Jack S. Kanthal | The Star-Ledger
What is cyclogenesis?
Another weather term that often pops up on social media is cyclogenesis, which is defined as “the formation or intensification of a cyclone or low-pressure storm system.”
Cyclogenesis is a more general term than bombogenesis, because it does not require a specific threshold of a storm’s pressure dropping over a certain time frame.
In short, bombogenesis is a specific type of cyclogenesis, and it has to meet the threshold of having its atmospheric pressure drop 24 millibars in 24 hours. As one weather website explains it, “Bombogenesis is cyclogenesis taken to the extreme.”
Explosive storm
What is the origin of these strange-sounding words?
“The term bombogenesis comes from the merging of two words: bomb and cyclogenesis,” AccuWeather explains in this report. “All storms are cyclones, and genesis means the creation or beginning. In this case, bomb refers to explosive development. Altogether the term means explosive storm strengthening.”
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.