With Russian forces stymied by Ukrainian resistance, in Kyiv, a defiant Zelensky says, ‘Here I am’

‘I’M NOT HIDING’: Russian forces have been slowly encircling the outer suburbs of Ukraine’s capital, but short on food, fuel, and ammunition, there they sit — unable to advance without taking heavy losses from Ukrainian defenders armed with deadly effective Western anti-armor and anti-aircraft weapons.

Projecting confidence bordering on hubris, Volodymyr Zelensky recorded a video of himself emerging from his bunker and taking a seat at his desk in his presidential office. “Here I am. I’m staying here on Bankova. I’m not hiding, and I’m not afraid of anyone.”

“We used to say, Monday — Monday is a hard day. It’s war in our country, so every day is a Monday,” Zelensky said into his phone as he walked to his office. “We are all in our places. We are all working. Everybody where they should be,” he said. “I’m in Kyiv. My team is with me, and Territorial Defense is in their places, the Army is in their ranks, and doctors, diplomats, politicians, journalists — we are all fighting.”

ZELENSKY SAYS HE’S ‘NOT HIDING’ IN VIDEO FROM KYIV OFFICE

ALL IN, BUT STUCK: The Pentagon says that as of yesterday, Russia had moved 100% of its pre-staged invasion force into the country, but — with the exception of some advances in the south — its army is not going very far, very fast.

“The Russians continue to get frustrated and slow down, and they really haven’t made any noteworthy progress in the last few days,” said spokesman John Kirby. “They are having morale problems. They are having supply problems. They are having fuel problems. They’re having food problems. They are meeting a very stiff and determined Ukrainian resistance.”

Most of their supplies are stuck along a 40-mile stretch of highway 15 miles north of Kyiv, in a convoy initially thought to consist of tanks and artillery, but which now appears to be largely trucks of supplies.

“The assessment is that it was largely meant to help resupply, and it is still stalled. It is still stuck,” said Kirby. “We don’t assess over the course of the weekend that it has made any progress.”

‘NEARLY 100%’ OF RUSSIAN TROOPS AMASSED AT BORDER NOW IN UKRAINE: PENTAGON

BOMBING OUT OF FRUSTRATION: The Pentagon says the intensive, often indiscriminate, bombardment of Ukrainian cities, which has killed hundreds of civilians and prompted almost two million people to flee their homes, is a clear sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s planned blitzkrieg has been bogged down.

“We assess that as they continue to get frustrated, they continue to rely now more on what we would call long-range fires,” said Kirby. “So, this is bombardment, missile strikes, long-range artillery, into city centers that they aren’t in yet, at least not on the ground in any significant number.”

Another sign that Russia’s army is struggling to find its footing is U.S. intelligence that Putin has been forced to recruit “shock troops” — highly-trained and often ruthless foreign fighters to stiffen his flagging forces.

“We do believe that the accounts of them, the Russians seeking Syrian fighters to augment their forces in Ukraine,” Kirby said. “Who are they going to be? How many they’re getting? What they’re going to pay them? All of that we don’t have perfect visibility on,” he said. “It’s interesting that, that Mr. Putin would have to find himself relying on foreign fighters here.”

UKRAINIAN INTELLIGENCE CLAIMS SECOND HIGH-RANKING RUSSIAN GENERAL KILLED

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE

Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!

NOTE TO READERS: On a personal note, I am having follow-up surgery on my left hand tomorrow as the result of the serious burns I sustained last October. It’s relatively simple outpatient surgery, but it may mean my left hand will be bandaged for a day or two, and that could make typing a challenge. I share this just to alert my loyal readers that I may not be able to publish this newsletter Thursday and possibly Friday.

HAPPENING TODAY: At 10 a.m., the House Intelligence Committee hears testimony on “Worldwide Threats,” from CIA Director William Burns; Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; National Security Agency Director Gen. Paul Nakasone; FBI Director Christopher Wray; and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier.

Haines is scheduled to lead off with a short opening statement on behalf of the intelligence community, and after two hours or so of questions in open session, the committee will reconvene in the afternoon behind closed doors at 1:30 p.m.

An unclassified version of the annual threat assessment, which was prepared before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, was released last night by the committee. In the report, Russia is assessed to “continue to use energy as a foreign policy tool to coerce cooperation” and to “remain the largest and most capable WMD rival to the United States for the foreseeable future as it expands and modernizes its nuclear weapons capabilities.”

“China will continue pursuing its goal of building a world-class military that will enable it to secure what it views as its sovereign territory, establish its preeminence in regional affairs, and project power globally while offsetting perceived U.S. military superiority,” the report says. “The CCP [Chinese Communist Party] will work to press Taiwan on unification, undercut U.S. influence, drive wedges between Washington and its partners, and foster some norms that favor its authoritarian system.”

ALSO TODAY: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hear testimony at 3 p.m. from Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs, on “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Assessing the U.S. and International Response.”

BIDEN ON BURN PITS: President Joe Biden travels Texas where he will tour a Fort Worth VA Clinic to speak with veterans, caregivers, and survivors, and give a speech about expanding access to healthcare and benefits for veterans affected by environmental exposures, such as burn pits, during their military service.

NO POLISH MiGS TO UKRAINE JUST YET: It turns out that idea about sending Ukraine Russian MiG-29s from the Polish Air Force and then having the U.S. send replacement F-16s to Poland is a bit more complicated than it might have seemed at first blush.

Not to mention it’s unclear if Poland, a NATO ally, is fully on board with the plan which could provoke Russia.

“We’re working with Poland on this issue and consulting with the rest of our NATO allies on it. This is Poland’s sovereign decision to make. We have in no way opposed Poland transferring planes to Ukraine,” said press secretary Jen Psaki at the White House.

But, she said, “There are a number of challenging practical questions, including how the planes would actually be transferred from Poland to Ukraine. Right? So, are they going to fly? Where will they depart from? Where will they land?”

And sending Poland U.S. fighter jets to “backfill” the loss of the MiGs is not so straightforward, either. “We are working through some pretty complicated logistics on that front as well,” Psaki said, “because procuring new planes and transferring serious weapon systems often takes years to do from the United States.”

KEEN INSIGHT? OR WISHFUL THINKING? On CNN last night, the network’s cadre of retired military generals were getting caught up in the narrative that the tide of battle in Ukraine was beginning to turn against Russia.

“Russian troops had been used to rolling into the city, with their tanks and armor, and saying, ‘Hey, we’re here. We’ve secured the city now. And it belongs to Russia. We’ve subjugated it.’ Well, that’s not happening here. The Ukrainian fighters, and their territorial defense forces, are fighting back,” said retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, former U.S. Army commanding general in Europe. “Russia is having an exceedingly tough time in moving forward. Their logistics supplies have been intercepted. And they’re just not executing according to the plan that they thought they would have.”

“They lost their paratroopers, on the first day, on the attack, within Kyiv, because they did some really dumb things,” he said.

“The Russians are in deep trouble now,” said retired Brig. Gen. Peter Zwack, former U.S. defense attache to Russia. “They’re trying to finish it because time is not on their side, and try to blast their way, in front of the whole aghast world, to try to get the Ukrainians to submit. But after seeing President Zelensky back, if you will, in the presidential office today, which was the ultimate snub to the Russians, I think the Ukrainians are in it.”

“They’re having trouble getting closure with Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces are coming forward that night. They’re attacking with RPGs and javelins against them, and they’re slowing down the Russian encirclement,” said retired Gen. Wes Clark, a former supreme NATO commander. “It’s not the campaign that Vladimir Putin thought he had going.”

“The suburbs are quite extensive. It’s very difficult to get your heavy artillery close enough to really do much to Kyiv, and those suburbs just choke up forces,” Clark said. “And the logistics that the Russians have are limited. They don’t have unlimited supplies of ammunition. They can’t even get them off that road convoy.”

“I think Ukraine already has the upper hand,” said Hertling. “And even though we’re seeing a lot of destruction, in the cities, from artillery and air, I think that battle will turn here shortly, as well. That’s a prediction.”

RUSSIA’S POTEMKIN ARMY

‘100 SECONDS TO MIDNIGHT’: The folks over at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have convened to consider the nuclear threat posed by Vladimir Putin’s not-so-veiled threat to use nuclear weapons to deter NATO or other countries from interfering with his invasion of Ukraine and decided not to reset their metaphorical Doomsday Clock and closer to midnight.

“The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board announced that the Clock will stay at 100 seconds to midnight — the closest humanity has ever been to self-destruction,” the arms control group said in a press release.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought this nightmare scenario to life, with Russian President Vladimir Putin threatening to elevate nuclear alert levels and even first use of nuclear weapons if NATO steps in to help Ukraine. This is what 100 seconds to midnight looks like.”

The Doomsday Clock was created in 1947 as a symbol of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Zelensky says he’s ‘not hiding’ in video from Kyiv office

Washington Examiner: ‘Nearly 100%’ of Russian troops amassed at border now in Ukraine: Pentagon

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian intelligence claims second high-ranking Russian general killed

Washington Examiner: Russian oligarch close to Putin says ‘we need peace’ and shares video critical of invasion

Washington Examiner: 140,000 Ukrainians living outside the country return to fight Russia

Washington Examiner: More than 20,000 foreigners sign up to join Ukrainian forces

Washington Examiner: ‘No decision’ on Russian oil ban, White House says

Washington Examiner: Inside Putin’s circles of defense

Washington Examiner: Russia puts Taiwan on ‘unfriendly’ countries list, China says it isn’t a country

Washington Examiner: Protesters rename street in front of Russian Embassy ‘President Zelensky Way’

Washington Examiner: SEE IT: Ukraine’s first lady shares images of children killed during invasion

Washington Examiner: WATCH: Ukrainian girl sings ‘Let It Go’ to group huddled in Kyiv bomb shelter

Washington Examiner: Pentagon asks high court to allow COVID-19 vaccine rule for unwilling Navy SEALs

Washington Examiner: Pentagon to shut down fuel storage facility in Hawaii after contaminating water

Washington Examiner: Australia unveils plan for base allowing ‘regular visits’ from US and UK nuclear submarines

Washington Examiner: Pentagon says Guantanamo detainee known as ’20th Hijacker’ will be sent back to Saudi Arabia

Washington Examiner: Border officials to be barred from turning illegal crossers back to Mexico without asylum screening

Radio Free Europe: ‘Sent As Cannon Fodder’: Locals Confront Russian Governor Over ‘Deceived’ Soldiers In Ukraine

Washington Post: Bipartisan Deal Reached On Bill To Ban Russian Energy Imports

Washington Post: Ukraine’s Humanitarian Crisis Grows

New York Times: Military Giant Proves Clumsy. Rivals Notice.

New York Times: Letter ‘Z,’ Symbol of Support For War, Spreads in Russia

Bloomberg: Hypersonic-Missile Failures Risk U.S. Chase of China, Russia

Bloomberg: China Warns U.S. Over Forming Pacific NATO, Backing Taiwan

Wall Street Journal: Iran Chief Negotiator Unexpectedly Leaves Vienna As Nuclear Talks Hit Standstill

Air Force Magazine: How Brown Plans to Battle Bureaucracy: Radical Transparency, More ’Horsepower’

Air Force Magazine: KC-135s, Air Support Ops Team Deploying to Europe

Air Force Magazine: Backfilling NATO MiG Transfers to Ukraine Not Quick or Easy

Reuters: U.S. Lawmakers Pressure Biden To Help With Transfer Of European Aircraft To Ukraine

Stars and Stripes: Navy Adds Runway And Command Center To A Floating Ice Chunk For Arctic Exercise

Marine Corps Times: Combat Arms Marine Officers Of Any Specialty Can Command New Regiments

Defense News: Oceanographers In Demand As U.S. Navy Expands Throughout Pacific

19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Military Is Failing Miserably in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Death by Stinger: How Russia’s Helicopters Are Getting Torched in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Russia Offers to End War (If Ukraine Agrees to Be a Puppet State)

Calendar

TUESDAY | MARCH 8

7 a.m. Fort Belvoir, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” in-person event with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville, followed by tour of the National Museum of the U.S. Army at Fort Belvoir

9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “United States Strategic Command and United States Space Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2023 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Adm. Charles Richard, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command; and Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander of the U.S. Space Command http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 2175 Rayburn — House (Select) Intelligence Committee hearing on “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from CIA Director William Burns; Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; National Security Agency Director Gen. Paul Nakasone; FBI Director Christopher Wray; and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier http://intelligence.house.gov

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activity in North and South America,” with testimony from Jennifer Walsh, acting assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security; Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command; and Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

1 p.m. Honolulu, Hawaii — National Defense Industrial Association and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Pacific Operational Science and Technology Conference, with Australian Navy Cmdr. Dean Commons, vice director for intelligence, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Australian Air Force Air Cmdr. Chris Robson, regional and multinational engagement adviser for strategic planning and policy at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Canadian Air Force Brig. Gen. Alex Day, deputy director for operations at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Michael Brown, director of the Defense Innovation Unit; and John Turner, technical director at the Space Development Agency https://tinyurl.com/2p88mytz

2 p.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “Women in the U.S. Military,” with Katie Crombe, nonresident scholar at the MEI Defense and Security Program; Erin Moffitt, nonresident scholar at the MEI Defense and Security Program; and Bilal Saab, founding director of the MEI Defense and Security Program https://www.mei.edu/events/women-us-military

2:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Current and future strategy of the French Armed Forces,” with French Chief of Defense Gen. Thierry Burkhard; and Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/fireside-chat-general-thierry-burkhard

3 p.m. SD-G50 — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Assessing the U.S. and International Response,” with testimony from Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/russias-invasion

3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual event: “U.S. Army’s priorities,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville; and Mark Cancian, senior adviser, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/us-armys-priorities-gen-mcconville

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 9

9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific Region,” with testimony from Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs; Adm. John Aquilino, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Army Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander, U.N. Command, Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence virtual event with Audrey Schaffer, director for space policy, National Security Council; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chair, Mitchell Institute’s Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://go.afa.org

12:30 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center and Washington Foreign Law Society virtual discussion: “Acts of War? Accountability for Cyberattacks in Ukraine,” with Liis Vihul, CEO of Cyber Law International; Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, adjunct lecturer at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies; and Michael Teodori, president of the Washington Foreign Law Society https://www.stimson.org/event/acts-of-war-accountability

1 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Navigating the New Strategic Realities of Space,” with Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/navigating-the-new-strategic-realities-of-space

2 p.m. — American Security Project virtual discussion: “Crisis in Ukraine,” with former European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

THURSDAY | MARCH 10

9 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on Ukraine, with German Ambassador to the United States Emily Haber https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

9:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The South Korean presidential election,” Jiyoon Kim, senior research fellow at the Institute of Democracy and Education; Insun Kang, deputy managing editor for digital content and diplomacy at Chosun Ilbo; Michelle Ye Hee Lee, Tokyo bureau chief at the Washington Post; Gordon Lubold, White House and national security reporter at the Wall Street Journal; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-43

10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate (Select) Intelligence Committee hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from CIA Director William Burns; Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; National Security Agency Director Gen. Paul Nakasone; FBI Director Christopher Wray; and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier http://intelligence.senate.gov

10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum, with Barry Pavel, director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; Matthew Kroenig, deputy director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies https://go.afa.org

11 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg delivers keynote address at the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense. Livestream at https://www.nato.int

12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion on U.S. national security strategy, as part of the Future of Conservative Foreign Policy series, with former National Security Council Deputy Advisor for Strategy Nadia Schadlow, senior fellow, Hudson Institute https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12:30 a.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Ukraine Today,” with Sergiy Kudelia, associate professor of political science, Baylor University https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

5:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “U.S.-North Korea Policy,” with Jung Pak, deputy special representative for North Korea and deputy assistant secretary of State for multilateral affairs and global China issues; Jacob Stokes, fellow at the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program; Frank Aum, senior expert on Northeast Asia at the United States Institute of Peace; Duyeon Kim, adjunct senior fellow at the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program; John Park, director of Harvard University’s Korea Project; Jacob Stokes, fellow at the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program; and Joshua Fitt, associate fellow at the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program https://cnas.zoom.us/webinar/register

7 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “South Korea’s National Security Policy After the 2022 Election,” with Karl Friedhoff, fellow for Asia studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs; Lami Kim, assistant professor in the U.S. Army War College Department of National Security and Strategy; Toby Dalton, co-director of the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; Chung Min Lee, senior fellow in the CEIP Asia Program; and Evan Feigenbaum, vice president of studies at CEIP https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/10/south-korea

FRIDAY | MARCH 11

7 p.m. — Institute for Corean-American Studies virtual winter symposium on “The Ukraine Crisis, Indo-Pacific, Northeast Asia and U.S. National Security,” Gary Samore, ICAS fellow and politics professor at Brandeis University https://www.eventbrite.com/e/icas-winter-symposium