‘WE HAVE PILOTS’: As Russia continues its cruel bombardment of civilian targets, Ukraine has three urgent requests from the West — establish a no-fly zone over all or part of the country, stop buying Russian oil, and send more warplanes.
In a private video call with 300 members of Congress Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky pleaded for more fighter jets and drones to continue to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces, as the unrelenting bombardment of Ukrainian cities and villages continues to kill hundreds of innocents and worsens the humanitarian suffering with each passing day.
“It seems it is not enough for the Russian troops, not enough ruined destinies, crippled lives. They want to kill more,” Zelensky said in a video statement last night.
“We are fighting on the ground, we have pilots, aces who have been fighting in the air, but our weakest kind of point is the air space, so we need support there,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on CNN Sunday.
ZELENSKY BEGS US FOR FIGHTER JETS AND A RUSSIAN OIL EMBARGO
POLAND TO PROVIDE MiG-29s: The plan, which is not without complications, would be for Poland to supply Soviet-era MiG-29s, which Ukrainian pilots are already trained to fly, and for the U.S. to “backfill” Poland’s air force with U.S. F-16s.
“We are being assured that talks are underway and the solution is close,” Kuleba said. “The problem is that we have no time for talks and solutions. We need them now. As I said, thousands of children have been killed as a result of strikes from the air. Russia ruthlessly uses its air force to bombard cities, critical infrastructure, destroys the supply of electricity and water to cities.”
Ukraine claims to have inflicted heavy losses on Russia — downing 46 planes and 68 helicopters, destroying 290 tanks, and killing 11,000 Russian troops — and believes it can prevail if it can hold out long enough.
“I have no doubt that we will prevail,” said Kuleba, “it’s a question of costs. If the West today, if the United States and others do not help us to solve the air defense problem, the costs will be much, much more higher.”
THE NO-FLY ZONE DEBATE: While the Biden administration continues to resist consideration of enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine for fear of provoking a “World War III” with Russia, the calls for establishing some kind of safe zone in the western part of the country are growing louder as the plight of Ukrainian refugees now said to number 1.5 million grows more desperate.
“I think there’s options, there’s a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine, there’s western Ukraine and a humanitarian no-fly zone,” said Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger on CNN last night. “There’s risk, and I’m not going to deny that,” he said, “But, you know, I think there’s risk in inaction at the moment.”
“We are letting Putin get inside our heads and deter us from doing things to protect civilians,” argued former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker on CBS yesterday. “We have to recognize that the civilian casualties and the horrific scenes that we just saw are going to get worse … So, if we can prevent that from a humanitarian point of view, I think we need to try.”
“The way to do this that I would recommend is we make clear the humanitarian purposes,” Volker said. “We limit the scope geographically to Kyiv and western Ukraine, so we’re not getting close to Russian borders. We make clear that we will only fire if fired upon on any ground targets. We are not there to strike anything. We make clear to the Russian military that we will not strike their aircraft or their helicopters as long as they stay outside the zone.”
‘GET THOSE MIG-29s IN THEIR HANDS’: “It’s quite obvious that if we put U.S. NATO jets in the air enforcing a no-fly zone, they’ll be going nose to nose with Russian fighter aircraft,” said former Supreme NATO Commander retired Adm. James Stavridis on NBC. “Down that path, the potential for miscalculation and a war between NATO and Russia and a war between Russia and the United States rises significantly.”
“Can we do it? Sure. Should we? Not yet,” he said.
Stavridis argues the better option is to provide Ukraine with enough air and ground firepower to establish its own safe zone. “What we ought to do is give the Ukrainians the ability to create a no-fly zone. More stingers, more missiles that can go higher than stingers. And above all, consummate this fighter deal. Get those MiG-29s in their hands.”
RUSSIA SEEKS SYRIAN FIGHTERS FOR URBAN WARFARE IN UKRAINE: REPORT
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UKRAINE REJECTS CEASEFIRE PLAN: A third round of talks was planned for today between Russian and Ukrainian representatives to discuss the establishment of humanitarian corridors for the safe evacuation of civilians from the battle zones.
Ahead of the talks, the Russian Defense Ministry announced a plan for “safe passages” from Kyiv in the north, the southern port city of Mariupol, and the cities of Kharkiv and Sumy.
But some of the evacuation routes would send refugees into Russia or Belarus, which resulted in a quick rejection by Ukraine.
DAY 12 SITREP: Late yesterday, a senior defense official provided reporters with a snapshot of what the Pentagon was seeing as the war entered its 12th day. Some bullet points:
- The airspace over Ukraine remains contested, with “Ukrainian air and missile defenses remain effective and in use.”
- There has not been any significant changes in Ukraine over the past day. “There does not appear to be any significant movement along the Russian axes. Leading elements remain outside these city centers.
- Russian forces continued efforts to advance and isolate Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv across the north and east but have been stymied by strong Ukrainian resistance.
- There is ongoing fighting as Russian troops attempt to encircle the southern port city of Mariupol, with continued reports of widespread outages of water and electricity.
- The Russian convoy of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery continues to be stalled on a road about 15 miles north of Kyiv.
- Russia has now committed inside Ukraine somewhere near 95% of the combat power it had amassed along the border.
- Approximately 600 Russian missiles have been launched since the beginning of the invasion.
- “We have not observed an amphibious invasion in or near Odessa, nor do we assess that one is imminent,” the official said.
The Pentagon assessment is in line with the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, released last night.
“The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offensive operations east and west of Kyiv, west of Kharkiv, and toward Mykolayiv-Odessa but have not yet initiated new large-scale ground attacks,” write Frederick Kagan, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko. “Russia has increased aerial and artillery/rocket attacks on civilian positions and infrastructure, including known evacuation corridors.”
“Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a second counter-attack in two days, this time near Mariupol. The Ukrainian air force and air defense forces continue to operate, inflicting damage on Russian ground forces and disrupting Russian air and missile operations.”
PENTAGON ESTIMATES ROUGHLY 95% OF RUSSIAN TROOPS AT BORDER NOW IN UKRAINE
IF KYIV FALLS: With Russian forces slowly moving closer to Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelensky steadfastly refuses to leave the capital, even as his life is increasingly in danger.
On CBS, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there are plans for a government-in-exile should Zelensky be killed by Russian forces.
“The Ukrainians have plans in place that I’m not going to talk about or get into any details on to make sure that there is what we would call continuity of government one way or another,” Blinken said. “Let me leave it at that.”
RUSSIAN OIL ‘SMELLS OF UKRAINIAN BLOOD’: “Stop buying Russian oil,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba on CNN. “We all know that their best, their biggest revenues come from trade in oil and gas. And today, Russian oil and gas smells of Ukrainian blood.”
“So instead of donating money to us, just stop buying it,” he said. “This is the best thing you can do.”
Axios is reporting that the White House is considering a possible visit by President Joe Biden to Saudi Arabia to patch up relations and convince the Saudis to pump more oil to boost world supplies in the event of a successful boycott of Russian supplies.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reported that administration officials were in Venezuela this weekend to meet with the government of President Nicolas Maduro, amid calls for lifting the Trump-era sanction on Venezuelan oil imports.
NIKKI HALEY: ‘ABSOLUTE LUNACY’ THAT US CONTINUES TO IMPORT OIL FROM RUSSIA
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Pentagon estimates roughly 95% of Russian troops at border now in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russia seeks Syrian fighters for urban warfare in Ukraine: Report
Washington Examiner: Russian special forces ‘furious’ with war plan in Ukraine: Report
Washington Examiner: Putin is in a ‘conflict that he can’t win,’ Rubio says
Washington Examiner: Bipartisan group of lawmakers travels to Poland amid Russian invasion of Ukraine
Washington Examiner: More than 3,000 in US apply to join Ukrainian forces: Report
Washington Examiner: Top EU official invites China to mediate between Russia and Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Top US diplomat huddles with Ukrainian foreign minister on border
Washington Examiner: Zelensky begs US for fighter jets and a Russian oil embargo
Washington Examiner: Top Belarusian general quits over ally Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Report
Washington Examiner: Trump tells GOP donors US must act to stop Russian ‘crime against humanity’
Washington Examiner: WATCH: Zelensky thanks Musk for additional SpaceX Starlink internet stations
Washington Examiner: Nikki Haley: ‘Absolute lunacy’ that US continues to import oil from Russia
Washington Examiner: Member of Ukrainian peace negotiation team dead: Report
Washington Examiner: North Korea says it conducted ‘important’ test on spy satellite
Washington Examiner: Washington Post to remove bylines and datelines to protect reporters in Russia
Washington Examiner: Ukraine asks mothers of Russian prisoners of war to pick up their sons
New York Times: Weapons Flow From The West In A Vast Airlift
Washington Post: Russians Hit Airfields, Renew Port City Attack
New York Times: As Ukraine Fights, Moldova Worries It May Be Next on Putin’s List
Air Force Magazine: Space Force Tests Health Monitoring Rings to Replace PT Tests
Air Force Magazine: Former Google CEO: AI Will Be ‘Force Multiplier Like You’ve Never Seen Before’
Air Force Magazine: Air and Space Force Chiefs: Defense Industrial Base May Be Too Fragile to Surge Production
CBS News: New Air Force One delivery could be 17 months behind schedule
19fortyfive.com: Russia vs. NATO: 5 Ways the War in Ukraine Could Start World War III
19fortyfive.com: Bleed Putin Dry in Ukraine: Will NATO Support an Insurgency Against Russia?
19fortyfive.com: Why the War in Ukraine Seems Destined to Get Far Worse
19fortyfive.com: Kill Putin? Some Argue Assassination Could End Russia’s War in Ukraine
Washington Post: Robert Gates: We need a more realistic strategy for the post-Cold War era
Calendar
MONDAY | MARCH 7
1 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Pacific Operational Science and Technology Conference, with Army Maj. Gen. James Jarrard, chief of staff of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu; Assistant Chief of Naval Research Capt. James Colston; Timothy Bunning, Air Force Research Laboratory CTO; Chris Manning, science and technology integration director at the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command; George Ka’iliwai III, requirements and resources director at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Tai Ming Cheung, director of the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation https://tinyurl.com/2p88mytz
2 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: Back in the Fold: Turkey and the Ukraine Conflict,” with Alan Makovsky, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress; Svante Cornell, policy adviser at the JINSA Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; and Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at JINSA https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual Global Security Forum on “Foreign Policy in an Era of Domestic Division,” with former Defense Secretary William Cohen; and former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta https://www.csis.org/events/global-security-forum
TUESDAY | MARCH 8
7 a.m. Fort Belvoir, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” in-person event with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville, followed by tour of the National Museum of the U.S. Army at Fort Belvoir
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “United States Strategic Command and United States Space Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2023 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Adm. Charles Richard, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command; and Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander of the U.S. Space Command http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. 2175 Rayburn — House (Select) Intelligence Committee hearing on “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from CIA Director William Burns; Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; National Security Agency Director Gen. Paul Nakasone; FBI Director Christopher Wray; and Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier http://intelligence.house.gov
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activity in North and South America,” with testimony from Jennifer Walsh, acting assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security; Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command; and Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3 p.m. SD-G50 — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Assessing the U.S. and International Response,” with testimony from Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/russias-invasion
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual event: “U.S. Army’s priorities,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville; and Mark Cancian, senior adviser, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/us-armys-priorities-gen-mcconville-army-chief-staff
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 9
9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific Region,” with testimony from Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs; Adm. John Aquilino, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Army Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander, U.N. Command, Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence virtual event with Audrey Schaffer, director for space policy, National Security Council; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chair, Mitchell Institute’s Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://go.afa.org
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There’s another potential ugly outcome. Russia levels Ukraine’s cities and the West does little to help but offer admiration for Ukrainian courage and perhaps a few more infantry weapons. Ukrainians will likely feel completely abandoned and equally mad at Russia and the West.”
Viewer comment to the Michael Smerconish show Saturday.
