Ethiopia's Future Hangs the Balance

by Elizabeth Kendal 

On 28 June, in what seemed to be an instantaneous and inexplicable reversal of fortunes, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) – the Marxist organisation that dominated, terrorised and robbed Ethiopia for three decades – regained control of Mekelle (the Tigray capital). 

The TPLF’s boast, that it had routed the far superior Ethiopian military, is pure propaganda, nothing but a lie. 

As it turns out, the TPLF entered Mekelle after the Ethiopian government announced a unilateral ceasefire having already withdrawn Tigray’s interim administration.

After being paraded through the streets, some 6000 captured Ethiopian troops were imprisoned in Tigray. 

In a 2 July Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA) President Gregory Copley explains: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed Ali on June 28, 2021, called a unilateral ceasefire in military operations against the Tigré (Tigray) Popular Liberation Front (TPLF) forces in Tigré Region of Ethiopia. This allowed TPLF forces unfettered access to the regional capital, Mekelle, and the prospect that the region would once again attempt to seal itself of hermetically from the rest of Ethiopia. 

“It is believed that Dr Abiy gave in to immense pressure from the US government, which had threatened to propose – through the UN Security Council – an armed intervention in Ethiopia to stop an ‘humanitarian crisis’ in the region. The TPLF rejected the ceasefire, and said that it would continue to fight against Ethiopian Government forces, confident in its backing from the US. The TPLF also said that it would continue its war against the adjacent Amhara people…

“What is significant,” notes Copley, “is that there has been no independent verification of the claims of Ethiopian and Eritrean government atrocities against the Tigrean people.” 

See:
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Caves to US Pressure on Tigré, Opening the Region to Major Instability
Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, by Gregory Copley, via Borkena, 2 July 2021

Recommended:
Pressure from US and EU Gives Wrong Signal: Violence Pays Off
By International Affairs Expert Simo-Pekka Parviainen (Finland), 7 July 2021 

Critically, as Stratfor (geopolitical intelligence) notes (1 July), the TPLF victory in Tigray “risks triggering more conflict elsewhere in the country [e.g. Oromia Region and Ogaden/Somali Region], placing both Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s political future and his economic reform plans in peril… 

“The conflict in Ethiopia will likely worsen over the coming months.” 

See:
A Rebel Victory in Tigray Leaves Ethiopia’s Abiy in Hot Water,
Stratfor Worldview, 1 July 2021 (subscription) 

excerpt:

“Despite the TPLF’s quick seizure of Mekelle and the ENDF’s [Ethiopian National Defense Force’s] unilateral cease-fire, the conflict in Ethiopia will likely worsen over the coming months. The TPLF has said it will not stop its offensive operation until all ENDF and ENDF-allied forces can no longer threaten Tigray, including the forces from Ethiopia’s Amhara region and the troops from neighboring country Eritrea that both joined the ENDF during its November offensive. Eritrea and Amhara, however, are unlikely to accept a permanent re-entrenchment of the TPLF in Tigray. Eritrea views the TPLF as an existential threat, given its role in the two countries’ 1998-2000 conflict that took place along Eritrea’s border with Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Amhara nationalists had also hoped to use the TPLF’s decline to expand their influence within Ethiopia. The Amhara branch of Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party has already said that the four former TPLF-controlled territories it seized after the November offensive will remain in Amhara, raising the risk for potential clashes in the future.”

ETHIOPIA’S LOOMING CRISIS

To understand why “Eritrea and Amhara are unlikely to accept a permanent re-entrenchment of the TPLF in Tigray”; and why “Eritrea views the TPLF as an existential threat”; and why “the four former TPLF-controlled territories it seized after the November offensive will remain in Amhara” (ensuring conflict will continue); we need to understand something of history and ideology of the TPLF in Ethiopia. 

Recommended:
Tigray Conflict: Homework Not Done by Western Countries Has Led to Wrong Policy Action
Simo-Pekka Parviainen, 18 May 2021

TPLF ORIGINS

In October 2016, Aleksandra W. Gadzala wrote concerning Ethiopia’s anti-government protests (which ran from 2015 to February 2018): 

“Ethiopia is made up of nine dominant ethnic groups and approximately eighty others. Historically, the Amhara people … were the country’s governing force. Emperor Haile Selassie, Emperor Menilek (1889–1913) before him, and Mengistu Haile Mariam’s Derg regime (1974–89) [a Marxist-Leninist military junta backed by the Soviet Union] after him were all Amhara. Each sought to establish a unified Ethiopia with Amharic as the official language and the Amhara culture as the foundation of Ethiopian identity. All other identities were to be eliminated – either by way of assimilation, or by force. In this the Derg [Amharic for Committee], was especially merciless. It perceived ethnic diversity as a threat to state unity; through its Red Terror campaign, it brutally slaughtered over five hundred thousand people – all, in its eyes, enemies of the Amhara state…

“Years of repression ultimately gave way to resentment of the Amhara and, by extension, the state. It also gave rise to what Ethiopian historian Gebru Tareke calls ‘dissent nationalism,’ and the emergence of ethno-nationalist groups like the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). For the TPLF, the state was an oppressive and colonizing force from which the country’s ethnicities had to be liberated. In 1975 the group waged what amounted to a secessionist struggle: its 1976 manifesto established ‘the first task of the national struggle will be the establishment of an independent democratic republic of Tigray.’ When in 1989 the TPLF, then already under the direction of Meles Zenawi, successfully overthrew the Derg and in 1991 merged with three other political factions to form the EPRDF [Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front], Ethiopia was subdivided into nine mostly ethnic regions, each with the right to independent lawmaking, executive, and judicial powers. Enshrined in Article 39.3 of the constitution is the right of all ethnicities to ‘self-government.’ 

Gadzala explains how the TPLF-dominated EPRDF government then proceeded – by way of violent repression – to centralise governance to the point that ethnic federalism became meaningless. “In this way,” writes Gadzala (2016), “decades of Amhara control have given way to decades of Tigray control. The presidential office, the parliament, central government ministries and agencies – including public enterprises – and financial institutions have since 1991 all been controlled by the TPLF. So too the military.” 

See: 
Ethiopia Opens a Pandora’s Box of Ethnic Tensions
By Aleksandra W. Gadzala, The National Interest, 12 Oct 2016.

TPLF RULE

In 1983, at the height of the Cold War, the US government of President Ronald Reagan issued National Security Directive 75, which summarised US policy towards the Soviet Union.  US policy was designed, “To contain and over time reverse Soviet expansionism by competing effectively on a sustained basis with the Soviet Union in all international arenas – particularly in the overall military balance and in geographical regions of priority concern to the United States. . .” while working towards “a more pluralistic political and economic system” within the Soviet Union.

At that time, Ethiopia was ruled by the Derg, a Marxist-Leninist military junta backed by the Soviet Union. In line with Directive 75, the US backed the Marxist-Leninist TPLF as it led the fight against the Soviet-backed Derg. To paraphrase the thinking of President Franklin D. Roosevelt: “They might be sons of bitches [in this case neither Fascists nor Islamists but Marxists], but they are our sons of bitches.” 

This mindset outlived the collapse of Communism in Europe and the break-up of the Soviet Union to continue into the War on Terror, proving that the US is as capable as any Great Power of unprincipled pragmatism in pursuit of geostrategic and economic interests. 

Despite US backing, the TPLF was still little more than a separatist guerrilla force from an ethnic minority fighting against a Soviet-backed military junta. In 1989, fortunes reversed as communism collapsed in Europe. In 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed and the TPLF-led Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) – comprising the TPLF, the Amhara Democratic Party, the Oromo Democratic Party, and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement – took control of Ethiopia. 

A 2004 paper by Matthew McCracken brings to light “the hidden agenda of Ethiopia’s central government” [i.e. the US-backed TPLF-dominated EPRDF]. 

McCracken explains how the TPLF abused its power to further its illegitimate aims: diverting aid to Tigray in order to enrich the state, and using Ethiopian soldiers to fight a war against Eritrea on its behalf in an attempt to expand the borders of Tigray.

Recommended:
Abusing Self-Determination and Democracy: How the TPLF Is Looting Ethiopia
By Matthew J. McCracken 
Case Western Reserve University, Journal of International Law, Vol 36, issue 1, 2004. (40 pages)

Excerpts from the introduction:

“After Eritrean and Tigrayan rebels overthrew Ethiopia’s socialist-military government in 1991, members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (or ‘TPLF’) reorganized into a new political party known as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (or ‘EPRDF’) and assumed control of Ethiopia’s central government. After 100 years of domination by the Amhara tribe, Ethiopia’s new government, led by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, claimed to usher in a new era of political openness.

“This so-called ‘Revolutionary Era’ produced many significant political changes…

“When Ethiopia’s Constitution was ratified in 1994, it established Ethiopia as a federal republic, and embraced the principle of self-determination through democratic rule… the Constitution granted all ‘Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ in Ethiopia the unconditional right to secede from the nation. To Ethiopian minorities and observers in the international community, the country seemed poised for democratic reform that would end decades of oppression.

“However, soon after the new Constitution was ratified, some legal scholars criticized its provision that allows regions within Ethiopia to secede. According to these scholars, the provision, articulated in Article 39, creates an unworkable form of central government by making it too easy for the country to break apart. Under Article 39, all a region needs to exercise its right of secession is a referendum passed by a two-thirds majority of its regional parliament and a separate referendum passed by a simple majority of the national parliament.

“Most of the scholars who have criticized Article 39 assume that its inclusion in the 1994 Constitution came about as a compromise between the EPRDF and other regional representatives. Under this assumption, the EPRDF reluctantly included Article 39 in the Constitution in order to appease regional calls for self-determination rights by minority populations who were inspired by Eritrea’s secession in 1993. In other words, the EPRDF needed to include Article 39 in order to garner support from Ethiopia’s regional governments and preserve the country's national integrity.

“However, recent developments have demonstrated that this assumption is probably incorrect. A new theory regarding the EPRDF’s purpose behind Article 39 is quietly gaining acceptance in Ethiopian and international circles. Although this theory is highly speculative, it is also potentially illuminating and explosive. It has all the hallmarks of a grand conspiracy theory: it implicates the highest levels of the Ethiopian [TPLF-dominated EPRDF] government; it involves a far-reaching plan with long-term goals; and it involves the use of violence and under-handed politics in order to perpetrate a fraud on the Ethiopian people and the international community. Worst of all, it is probably correct.

“In brief, the new theory is this: the TPLF-dominated EPRDF intentionally included Article 39 in Ethiopia’s 1994 Constitution so that the Tigray region could loot Ethiopia of its resources, use the Ethiopian military to expand the borders of Tigray, and then secede from Ethiopia. Underlying this theory is the widely held opinion that the TPLF and EPRDF are not independent organizations, but symbiotic.

“The evidence supporting this theory comes from several sources. Most importantly, the TPLF put its intentions in writing in the organization’s manifesto known as the ‘Republic of Greater Tigrai’. Drafted by TPLF leaders in 1976, the manifesto sets forth an elaborate plan for the liberation of Tigray from Ethiopian rule. The plan involves two main steps: 1) re-demarcating Tigray’s borders to expand the region’s borders within Ethiopia, and 2) acquiring coastal lands within Eritrea [reaching all the way to the Red Sea] and seceding as an independent nation…”

Having written the right to self-governance and even secession into the constitution, the TPLF-dominated EPRDF then used every repressive and violent means in its arsenal to frustrate that right, while never surrendering its own vision of an independence Republic of Greater Tigray. “It seems likely,” writes McCracken, “that the TPLF/EPRDF, like the Derg before it, never had any intention of allowing other regions [e.g. Oromia Region or Ogaden/Somali Region] to secede from Ethiopia…” 

Rather, it seems the TPLF’s plan was always enrichment, enlargement, and then secession by way of Article 39. 

McCracken writes: “In addition to diverting money from the rest of Ethiopia to Tigray, international aid organizations suspect that the TPLF has also misappropriated donated monies. Since overthrowing the socialist Derg, the ostensibly-democratic EPRDF has been able to secure large amounts of aid from Western nations such as the United States. According to the international advocacy group Human Rights Watch (or ‘HRW’), Western nations have poured in funding to help the country develop, but turned a blind eye to human rights violations … not wishing to jeopardize Ethiopia’s cooperation in fighting terrorism.”

In 2010 a BBC investigation found  that the TPLF had indeed misappropriated donated monies, and that “Millions of dollars in Western aid for victims of the Ethiopian famine of 1984-85 was siphoned off by rebels to buy weapons.”

This begs the question; “Does the TPLF actually care about Tigreans?” 

TPLF PROPAGANDA , AND FRIENDS IN WASHINGTON

The Ethiopian government has been accused of engineering famine and using food as a weapon. It is a horrendous accusation, one the government firmly denies, rejecting the claims as “baseless and politically motivated”. 

In November 2020, when the TPLF triggered this war by massacring hundreds of ethnic Amhara soldiers and then civilians in Mai-Kadra (Mycadra), western Tigray state, Tigreans were struggling to deal with the region’s worst locust plague in 25 years. That famine was already closing in on Tigray before the TPLF started the war shows just how much the TPLF cares for Tigreans (about as much as Hamas cares for Palestinians)! 

What's more, Copley notes, “there has been no independent verification of the claims of Ethiopian and Eritrean government atrocities against the Tigrean population”.

Rather, continues Copley, “The TPLF has, with some of the estimated $30-billion stolen from Ethiopian funds (and much of that coming from US direct and covert aid during the US Barack Obama-Joe Biden Administration), engaged in a major, professional information warfare campaign against the Abiy Government which replaced the Marxist TPLF Government. This has been assisted by the reality that the TPLF retained great friendships in Washington, DC, as a result of the [Dec 2009] deal which the former TPLF Meles Zenawi Government did with Washington to train and equip the TPLF’s private, 30,000-man army in exchange for US use of Ethiopian air basing, particularly at Arba Minch, in Southern Ethiopia.” (emphasis mine)

Indeed, the US Air Force invested tens of millions of dollars to upgrade the Arba Minch Airport runway and build an annex where it housed a fleet of Reaper drones which it used in the battle against al-Shabaab in Somalia between 2011-2016. 

But for the US to have the Meles/TPLF-led EPRDF regime as an ally in the War on Terror it had to turn a blind eye to endemic corruption and gross human rights abuses. For while the US was fighting actual terrorists, the TPLF-dominated EPRDF was using its anti-terror laws to crack down on political dissent, incarcerating thousands political prisoners, many of whom were severely tortured. 

Copley continues: “Senior TPLF officials – many of whom were given US passports by the Obama Administration – boast often of their friendship with senior US officials, but particularly with Dr Susan Rice, the former National Security Advisor to the Obama-Biden White House (July 1, 2013 to January 20, 2017). During her tenure as National Security Advisor, Dr Rice’s deputy was Antony Blinken, now the US Secretary of State in the Joe Biden Administration. But Dr Rice, who is currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council which reports to Pres. Biden, had a long history of engagement with the TPLF, particularly dating from her years as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs during the William Clinton Administration, and as Ambassador to the United Nations from 2009 to 2013... Now, the same team of Obama-Clinton officials are back in power in Washington, DC.”

INVERTING THE TRUTH

This might seem like a lot of information and a lot of background, but it really is important. For a narrative is being promulgated, and disseminated by Western politicians and mainstream media that is essentially an inversion of the truth. What’s more, this narrative – that PM Abiy is essentially a genocidal war criminal against whom the heroic TPLF must fight to liberate its oppressed people – can only take Ethiopia and the whole Horn of Africa into a place of unparalleled catastrophe; something one would assume is not in the West’s interests!  

On 29 October 2020, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) released a report by its Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena. The report notes that political transitions in Sudan and Ethiopia have “set the region on a transformative new trajectory toward reform and stability”. However, it warns that state failure “would send a tidal wave of instability across Africa and the Middle East” (page 4).  

“Given their populations of approximately 45 million and 105 million, Sudan and Ethiopia are respectively more than two times and six times the size of pre-war Syria. Fragmentation of either country would be the largest state collapse in modern history, likely leading to mass inter-ethnic and inter-religious conflict; a dangerous vulnerability to exploitation by extremists [code for Islamic jihadists]; an acceleration of illicit trafficking, including of arms; as well as a humanitarian and security crisis at the crossroads of Africa and the Middle East on a scale that would overshadow the existing conflicts in South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen” (page 10). 

Excerpt from McCracken’s conclusion (2004)

“It remains to be seen whether or not the TPLF will ever be able to realize the goals set forth in the ‘Republic of Greater Tigrai’. It is possible that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and the other TPLF members remaining in Ethiopia’s central government have given up on ever asserting Tigray’s independence following Ethiopia’s failure to gain access to the Red Sea.

“The international community, led by the United States, has chosen to ignore [numerous questions] in the case of Ethiopia. Perhaps the United States is too concerned with preserving Ethiopia as an ally in the ‘war on terror’ to question the legitimacy of [EPRDF-ruled] Ethiopia’s ‘democracy’. By blindly aiding Ethiopia [i.e. the EPRDF] and the TPLF, the United States risks creating a populous in Ethiopia rich with anti-American sentiment. The secession of Tigray would only provoke more anger and ultimately create the potential for more terror directed at American interests. The world cannot afford to ignore the hidden agenda of the TPLF any longer.” 

In concluding his strategic analysis (2 July 2021), Copley wonders: 

 “… will the Government in Addis Ababa awaken to the reality that its chosen ally, the United States (for which it abandoned the Meles Government’s support for the People’s Republic of China), has, in fact, abandoned it. And would Dr Abiy, with that realization, resume attacks on the TPLF, regardless of US pressure? At that point, it seems likely that the US would do what US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already threatened to do: to seek United Nations Security Council approval for an international military intervention into Ethiopia on ‘peacekeeping’ grounds, much as the same US team attempted to do (eventually getting some NATO support) in Yugoslavia during the 1990s?”

Ethiopia's future hangs in the balance.

----------------------------

Helpful Background: 

Ethiopia-Eritrea: Reforms and Resistance
by Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Monitoring, 25 June 2018

Ethiopia-Eritrea: rapprochement achieved; now for implementation.
The silver cloud (of peace) has a dark lining (the TPLF).
by Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Monitoring, 23 July 2018

Slaughter in Oromia: The Battle for Ethiopia Heats Up
By Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Monitoring, 14 June 2020

Ethiopia: Collapse Would Trigger Christian Crisis
by Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin, 18 Nov 2020

Ethiopia: Pivotal Elections; Church Massacre
by Elizabeth Kendal, Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin, 17 March 2021 

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF) and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

See www.ElizabethKendal.com 

Slaughter in Oromia: The Battle for Ethiopia Heats Up

By Elizabeth Kendal

DEATH IN ADDIS ABABA

On the evening of Monday 29 June, popular Ethiopian singer and champion of Oromo interests Hachalu Hundessa (36) was assassinated in Addis Ababa, in Gelan Condominiums, shot as he got into his car at around 9:30 p.m. Addis Ababa Police Commission Commissioner, Getu Argaw, reportedly told Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation that police had arrested an unspecified number of suspects. Hachalu is survived by his wife of 10 years, Fantu Demissie, and their two daughters.

Hachalu’s protest songs became anthems for millions of ethnic Oromo during the years of anti-government protests which commenced in December 2015 and culminated in February 2018 in the resignation of Prime Minister (PM) Hailemariam Desalegn. A month later, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (a four-party coalition) elected Dr Abiy Ahmed Ali (41) as Ethiopia’s first ethnic Oromo Prime Minister. With an ethnic Oromo Muslim father and an ethnic Amhara Ethiopian Orthodox Christian mother, Dr Abiy is a convert to evangelical Protestant Christianity. He is a former soldier, having served as a colonel in intelligence and communications. He is also a technocrat and cyber warfare expert. He has a PhD (2017) in conflict resolution from the Institute for Peace and Security Studies, Addis Ababa University [see: RLM June 2018].  PM Abiy’s reforms have been breathtaking, and is brokering of peace with Eritrea [see: RLM July 2018] earned him a well-deserved Nobel Peace Prize (2019).

Like PM Abiy, Hachalu Hundessa was an ethnic Oromo Christian (Ethiopian Orthodox). While Hachalu supported PM Abiy’s vision of a united Ethiopia and was critical of militant Oromo ethnic nationalism, he had also made provocative, xenophobic remarks about non-Oromos in Addis Ababa. So while Hachalu might have been an Oromo champion and icon, hard-line Oromo ethnic separatists doubtless also viewed him as a problematic irritant.

VIOLENCE ERUPTS 

Hachalu’s assassination has triggered some of the worst ethnic-religious violence seen in Ethiopia in recent times; and the crisis is far from over. Evidence indicates that the pogroms were organised with the intent to destabilise the nation and derail PM Abiy’s reform agenda.

Initially, suspicion fell on the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) which has long resisted PM Abiy’s reforms and peace-making. As it turns out, that was not the case.

On Friday 10 July, Ethiopia’s Attorney General Adanech Abiebie told a press conference in the capital Addis Ababa that two of three suspects in the killing of Hachalu Hundessa were now in custody. The shooter, Tilahun Wami has reportedly confessed that the assassination was commissioned by the Oromo Liberation Front (Shane Group), a militant faction of the Oromo Liberation Front.

This is the group believed to be responsible for the abduction of 17 mostly ethnic Amhara youths – 12 of whom are students at Dembi Dollo university, and 14 of whom are girls – in western Oromia in December 2019. The whereabouts of these youths remains unknown.

Though widely reported as “ethnic clashes”, that description does not do justice to the truth of what really happened. Commencing before dawn the next morning (30 June), gangs of Oromo nationalists specifically targeted ethnic Amhara Ethiopian Orthodox Christians living in some 40 districts of Oromia region. According to official reports, the toll to date is 239 dead with some 300 wounded. More than 3,360 Amhara Christians are now displaced, with multitudes seeking refuge in churches. The military was deployed, and some 4,700 arrests made (1,600 in Addis Ababa).

According to Archbishop Habune Henok, whose diocese is in the West Arsi zone of Oromo regional state, told Borkena (Ethiopian media) that the violence began at 4 a.m. before he had even heard of Hachalu’s assassination.

Archbishop Henok speaks out about massacre of Orthodox Christians,
Borkena, 12 July 2020
(excerpts)

“[The Archbishop] confirmed 19 Christians massacred across 11 districts in Arsi are all Orthodox Christians, and they were killed savagely. Elder and youth were targeted in the killing. [Some were] hacked to death. Others were stoned and clubbed to death. . .

“In Arsi Negele, one person (who is a member of the Orthodox Church) was hanged upside down after he was killed. . .

“In terms of destruction of property, 72 cars and 934 businesses have been destroyed including clinics and four schools from Kindergarten to junior school levels (in Shashemene town and Arsi Negele).

“According to Archbishop Henok, the owner of the schools are members of the Orthodox Church and many of those whose properties were destroyed were known for their social services in the church.

“In addition to businesses, 493 residences have been burned – and all of them are followers of the Orthodox Church.

“The Holy Savior Church in Kokosa, a district in Western Arsi Zone, is burnt down to the ground with all the Holy Icons and other sacred items in the church.”

The Archbishop insists that these were not simply “ethnic clashes”.

“He said ethnic identity was used as a cover only. The targets were Christians, and that the attack was a coordinated one, he said.

“In the region where the massacre took place, there appears to be intolerance towards the followers of Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church.”

Also on Tuesday 30 June, violence erupted in the capital over burial arrangements for Hachalu’s body.  Oromo nationalists demanded he be buried in the capital Addis Ababa, but police suspected this was merely a ploy to bring insurrection to the capital. On the other hand, Hachalu’s family, with the support of the government, insisted he be buried in his birthplace Ambo, 100km west of Addis.

Security personnel were forced to intervene when a group of Oromo nationalists – among them Jawar Mohammed (an Oromo nationalist leader and fundamentalist Muslim) – attempted to intercept and snatch the body en-route to Ambo. A policeman was shot and Jawar Mohammed (34) – who despite his citizenship issues wants to contest the next election in opposition to Dr Abiy [see RLPB 526 (30 Oct 2019)] – was arrested, along with around 30 of his supporters.

Jawar Mohammed remains jailed, alongside another prominent Oromo politician, Bekele Gerba. His appearance in court sometime later this month is sure to be explosive.

Social media reveals how Jawar’s Oromo nationalist supporters and financial backers in the diaspora – in particular, thousands of ethnic Oromo and Somali Muslims in Jawar’s former home base of Minnesota, USA – encouraged and cheered on the killings from afar.

Ethiopia’s social media captures Oromo xenophobia killings Live
By Teshome Borago, for Borkena, 3 July 2020
(excerpts)

“Many of [the] anti-Abiy Oromos funding the OLF-Shane militant operations inside Ethiopia live in Minnesota and diaspora; so their social media activity suddenly picked up at the end of June. They successfully organized protest rallies in Minneapolis and other western towns while posting disturbing nativist comments online promoting violence. Most Social media Oromo comments said ‘Time to remove settlers from Oromia’, ‘burn them out’, ‘free Oromia’, ‘Abiy is traitor’, ‘Abiy must go’, ‘Kill all neftegnas (non-Oromos) in Oromia!’ Etc.”

Gradually, posts started appearing from the relatives of victims:

“One post in Amharic was by Amman Chiksa, who said ‘several fathers of my friends just got killed’, in the same town of Asasa, Arsi. ‘They were murdered for no reason. They are elderly and all they do is go from home to church and back, everyday.’ Then the grief-stricken person asks, ‘who would commit such savagery?’. . . ‘why would anyone burn down a clinic?’, ‘why would anyone burn down houses where the elderly congregate?’

“Ethiopians online posted condolences of support and felt sorrow for the senseless killings in Oromia region. The man then said, ‘my mother survived as she fled in hiding . . . may God help us,’ and added ‘Asasa and other parts of Arsi currently look like Mogadishu’.”

As Teshome Borago writes the Borkena (3 July 2020) article above: “Most of the crisis today is connected to the apartheid system called ethnic-federalism, also known as Zenawism [after its founder, PM Meles Zenawi Asres] which tried to segregate Ethiopia by tribe since 1991. It was a faulty system designed to address past injustices, but it is now believed to have caused the most civilian death, displacement and destruction in Ethiopian history in less than 30 years.”

Ethiopia's Oromia Region
An enlarged map can be downloaded here (reliefweb 27 March 2013)

THE BATTLE FOR ETHIOPIA

This is a battle between the vision of a strong and united, multi-ethnic, multi-religious Ethiopia versus the dream of ethnic nationalists to rule themselves in independent states. Three decades of ethnic federalism has hardened ethnic identities, resulting in ethnic nationalism and separatism. These movements tend to be led by ambitious politicians (often self-centered megalomaniacs) whose aim it is to ride to power on the back of victimhood narratives.

In a country like Ethiopia where people have moved around, lived together and intermarried for centuries, ethnic nationalism establishes ethnic minorities – minorities at risk of discrimination, subjugation, slaughter and ethnic cleansing as is being demonstrated so tragically in Oromia. 

It must be stated that Jawar Mohammed’s Oromo ethnic nationalism is further fueled by his Islamic worldview, which is no doubt why many Oromo Christians (like Hachalu Hundessa) tend not to support it.

EXTERNAL FORCES

In an interview with FRANCE 24 (10 July), Zadig Abraha, the Ethiopian minister in charge of democratization, accused “external forces” of playing a role in the recent violence in Oromia region.

While making it clear that investigations were ongoing, Zadig also accused forces opposed to changes ushered in by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of being behind the unrest. Specifically, he said, “the old regime together with forces [whose] interests are aligned with it, are working to make sure that reform gets aborted. And in this game, external forces are also involved.”

One such “external force” that would gain from PM Abiy’s demise is Egypt, which is engaged in a heated dispute with Ethiopia over its construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Egypt warns of 'existential threat' from Ethiopia dam
Aljazeera, 30 June 2020
(excerpts)

“At a virtual meeting of the UN Security Council on Monday, Egypt's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry warned of conflict if the UN fails to intervene.

“Filling the dam without an agreement could bring the standoff to a critical juncture. Both Egypt and Ethiopia have hinted at military steps to protect their interests, and experts fear a breakdown in talks could lead to open conflict.

“One analyst, however, believes it is unlikely any of the countries involved will resort to force.

‘Ultimately, especially in the long run, the only way for Egypt to secure those [water] supplies is via cooperation with its upstream neighbours, very much including Ethiopia,’ said William Davison, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.

‘If this escalated into any form of conflict, it’s going to make it much, much more difficult for the parties to overcome the remaining obstacles to reaching an agreement on the GERD, and it really could set back relations in the long term,’ he told Al Jazeera.”

Davison’s assessment makes a lot of sense; however it does not preclude the possibility that Egypt might seek to facilitate regime change in Addis Ababa.

For more on the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, see:
Egypt Warns Ethiopian Mega-Dam May Provoke Conflict, Crises
By Sonal Patel, Power Magazine, 2 July 2020

Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II ruled, expanded and modernized Ethiopia from March 1889 to his death in December 1913. In seeking support from European powers he explained Ethiopia's predicament: “Ethiopia has been for fourteen centuries a Christian island in a sea of pagans”.

Indeed it is! So, apart from Egypt, it is not difficult to think of other “foreign forces” which might likewise be interested in fueling ethnic-nationalism and fanning the flames of unrest for the purpose of destabilising the government of PM Abiy. Some would even fantasize about dismantling, shrinking and challenging the very existence of that “Christian island”. Doubtless many would be especially excited about the prospect of supporting a committed Islamist such as Jawar Mohammed.

It is highly likely that fundamentalist Islamic jihadists in Egypt and Sudan, as well as Islamic irredentists in Somalia (who claim much of Ethiopia’s Eastern/Ogaden Region as belonging to Somalia); along with transnational jihadist organisations -- in particular Islamic State which is already recruiting for a jihad is Ethiopia [see RLPB 520 (18 Sept 2019)] -- may actually see Ethiopia’s crisis as an opportunity not to be missed.

Who knows? Even Turkey’s belligerent and Islamist President Erdogan might be willing to contribute some weapons and Syrian fighters for the cause (as he is doing in Libya). Or the Iranians; after all, Iran is already busy in Africa.

Not only is Ethiopia a Christian island in a sea of Islam, but Dr Abiy Ahmed is at this moment a reforming prime minister in a sea of enemies – deadly enemies with lots of equally deadly potential friends.

We can only hope and pray that the government of PM Abiy will find that it too has friends that will understand the government's predicament back its exalted goals.

The situation demands vigilant monitoring and aggressive advocacy.

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF) and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

See www.ElizabethKendal.com 

Ethiopia-Eritrea: rapprochement achieved; now for implementation

The silver cloud (of peace) has a dark lining (the TPLF).
Elizabeth Kendal


On 5 June, Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Amhed (41) announced that Ethiopia was ready to abide by the Algiers Declaration, accept the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission ruling of 2002, and withdraw from disputed territories pursuant of peace.

For full background see Religious Liberty Monitoring
Ethiopia and Eritrea: Reforms and Resistance
by Elizabeth Kendal, 25 June 2018

Since then, progress has been rapid.

26 June: Eritrean Delegation visits Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Tuesday 26 June, an Eritrean delegation arrived in Addis Ababa for a three-day official visit. It was the first high level meeting between the states since diplomatic relations were broken off in 1998, and it was a sensational success.

For more details see Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin
Ethiopia and Eritrea: leaders have “opened the door of peace”
by Elizabeth Kendal, 4 July 2018

8 July: Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed visits Asmara, Eritrea.

On Sunday 8 July, an Ethiopian Airlines aeroplane touched down in

Asmara – the first in 20 years. The plane was carrying Ethiopian Prime Minister, Dr Abiy Ahmed, who was met at the airport by Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki. It was the first time the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea had met in more than 20 years. 

Eritreans were out in numbers, eager to welcome the Ethiopian Prime Minister. According to one eyewitness, “The yearning for peace was palpable.” 

9 July: declaration signed; ‘state of war’ over.

On Monday 9 July, Prime Minister Abiy and President Afwerki held a historic bilateral summit in which they signed a “declaration of peace and friendship” and declared the “state of war” over.

“We have agreed,” said PM Abiy, “to open up embassies in our respective countries, allow our people to visit each other’s cities, and allow our airlines and ports to operate freely. Love is greater than modern weapons like tanks and missiles. Love can win hearts, and we have seen a great deal of it today here in Asmara.” 

Video news report: Al-Jazeera, 9 July 2018
Ethiopia, Eritrea sign “declaration of peace and friendship”,
(Includes comment by Horn of Africa specialist Matt Bryden, on the challenge of implementation.)

10 July: Phone lines opened

On the eve of the 1998-2000 Ethiopia-Eritrea war, the Ethiopian government expelled more than 70,000 Eritreans from Ethiopian territory while Eritrea likewise expelled thousands of Ethiopians from its territory. The expulsions resulted in lives being turned upside down and families being torn apart. The pain of separation was cruelly compounded by the severing of, not merely all transport and trade links, but all telecommunication and postal services as well.  

Consequently, on Tuesday 10 July 2018 when telephone services between the two states were restored, the lines lit up. Telephone lines dormant for decades buzzed excitedly as loved ones long-separated established contact for the first time in 20 years. Others excitedly made random calls, just to chat with a stranger on the other side of the border. 

14 July: Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki visits Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

On Saturday 14 July, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki flew into Addis Ababa for a three day visit. Thousands of cheering and dancing Ethiopians turned out to greet him. As reported by France24, “Some excited Ethiopians have compared the restoration of relations with one of the world’s most closed-off countries to the fall of the Berlin Wall.” 

“A visibly moved Abiy on Saturday [14 July] praised Ethiopians for their warm welcome of the Eritrean president with chants of ‘Isaias! Isaias!’ and flag-waving. ‘I’m very emotional right now,’ Abiy told a luncheon at the National Palace.

“Thank you,” said Afwerki, “for the genuine love that you all showed us.”

16 July: Eritrean Embassy re-opens in Addis Ababa

Closed since 1998, the Eritrean Embassy in Addis Ababa remained like a time capsule "frozen in time" collecting dusk for 20 years [BBC images]. 

However, at a special ceremony on Monday 16 July the embassy was inaugurated. PM Abiy handed the keys to President Afwerki and together the two leaders raised the Eritrean flag. 

After inaugurating the embassy, President Afwerki left Addis Ababa to return to Asmara; he was seen off by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. 

18 July: Flights resume enabling family reunions

On Wednesday 18 July, 465 Ethiopians travelled to Asmara on the first commercial flight between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 20 years. While the flight did carry some dignitaries – including former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegne and Ethiopian Orthodox Church Patriarch Abune Mathias – the passengers were mostly people separated from their families by the war.

With tickets selling out in less than one hour, a second flight was scheduled for 15-minutes later. “With the demand we are witnessing, I think we’re going to increase the frequency to twice a day, thrice a day and even more,” said Ethiopian Airline’s chief executive, Tewolde GebreMariam, at a ceremony ahead of the maiden flight. 

On the plane, passengers received roses and champagne, and sang and danced in the aisles during the 60-minute flight. 

However, the mood changed when they landed in Asmara. 

Tears flowed freely as family members were reunited with loved-ones whom they had not seen or touched for 20 years. Among them was Ethiopian journalist Addisalem Hadgu (58) of the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (EBC). During the war his Eritrean wife took their two teenage daughters to Eritrea, and despite all his efforts over the next 18 years he had been unable to make contact with them. For Addisalem, the reunion with his now adult daughters was almost more than he could bear. 

Ninety Eritreans flew to Addis Ababa on the return trip. 

NOW THE HARD PART:
withdrawing Ethiopian troops from Eritrean territory.

Bronwyn Bruton is the deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Centre in Washington, D.C. In an insightful, nearly 3000-word analysis she explains that “there is a very clear reason why both leaders [Abiy and Afwerki] are suddenly so eager to cooperate. They are united by the presence of a still-potent mutual enemy: the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).”

See: Ethiopia and Eritrea Have a Common Enemy 
by Bronwyn Bruton, for Foreign Policy magazine (subscription) 12 July 2018

excerpts: 

“Though it governed behind the fig leaf of a larger ruling coalition, the TPLF and the tiny ethnic minority it represents have wielded unlimited power in Ethiopia for the past two decades.

“The party has used its power to obliterate civil society, the press, religious freedoms, and all forms of political opposition.

“By early this year, the TPLF’s stranglehold on power had brought Ethiopia to the verge of collapse, as larger ethnic groups, led by the Oromo and Amhara, blocked roads into Addis Ababa in protest. To avert a showdown — which would have taken the form of a catastrophic food and fuel shortage in the capital — the ruling coalition’s government was forced to oust its prime minister, release thousands of political prisoners, and consent to the appointment of Abiy, an Oromo leader, as the new head of state. Abiy has proved more of a firebrand than expected and has been moving quickly to generate a political following and dismantle the TPLF’s grip on power. . . 

“Abiy has even more reason than Isaias to fear the holdouts in the TPLF. They are the key impediments to political reform in Ethiopia, and since taking office, he has frantically sought to undo their hold on power. He diminished the military’s authority by lifting a repressive state of emergency, repealed laws that allowed the security forces to label dissidents as terrorists and arrest them, and fired a slew of senior security and intelligence officers, most of whom were Tigrayans.

“His much-lauded decision to lift the government monopolies on several of Ethiopia’s key industries, including telecommunications and energy, was lauded as a free market advance — but it was also an important swipe at the TPLF’s bank accounts. TPLF leaders have profited from self-dealing by directing these monopolies to award lucrative government contracts to firms that they own or are run by their military cronies.
“Abiy is working hard and fast to gain ground against the TPLF before its bickering leaders can organize a coherent response . . .

“The bad news for Abiy is that his maneuvers will probably have minimal effects. After 27 years of autocratic rule, the TPLF has patronage networks that run deep and are rooted in ethnic demographics. Although Tigrayans represent only 6 percent of Ethiopia’s population, an analysis of the Ethiopian military several years ago found that 57 of 61 generals in mission-critical positions were ethnically Tigrayan. It is estimated that two-thirds of the broader officer class is, too.”

Concerning the generals, Bruton notes that while PM Abiy has already started to “thin their ranks”, that “doesn’t make them disappear”. What's more, PM Abiy “can’t possibly afford to fire 95 percent of Ethiopia’s generals. To consolidate his power, he needs to fire the worst but co-opt the rest, and that process could take years.” Until then, Bruton warns, they will continue to foment trouble. As an example, she raises the case of Maj. Gen. Tekleberhan Woldearegay who, after being forced to resign from his powerful post as director of the notorious Information Network Security Agency (INSA), went on the radio and “appeared to call for a coup”. Describing himself as a representative of the military, he lambasted the government calling it “an enemy force” and “not of the people”. 

While Bruton does not believe that disgruntled TPLF hardliners could persuade the military into open revolt, she does expect them act as spoilers. “The assassination attempt on Abiy in Meskel Square on June 26 appears to have been just such an incident — the deputy police commissioner has been arrested, alongside 30 other police and government officials.”

Peace Process Requires International Support

As Bruton explains: “Abiy’s moves — including his overtures to Eritrea and firing of key generals — are intensely provocative to the TPLF, and they may well backfire. Ethiopia’s allies, especially Washington, should be watching the developments there with alarm and should act to ensure that the situation there does not spiral out of control. If TPLF hard-liners use their influence over the military to illegally retake power — either through assassination, ethnic destabilization tactics, or a coup — Ethiopia will face a civil war.”

Bruton’s recommendation: “The European Union and the United States should be sending an unmistakable and public message to the TPLF that any seizure of power will not be tolerated — that aid funding, military cooperation, and political backing will disappear if there is a coup attempt or any other form of anti-democratic interference. Such a message would make it emphatically clear to the hard-liners that a graceful exit is their only option.”

Further to this, nothing will or even could change inside Eritrea so long as Ethiopian troops remain on Eritrean soil. 

Bruton concludes: “Peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia is long overdue. But it’s important for policymakers to understand that the current rush to peace is a tactical matter. As long as both Abiy and Isaias remain existentially threatened by the TPLF, both will be quick to gloss over their differences. . .

“For now, hard-liners within the TPLF can be held in check by the threat of popular fury. But they also may be desperate enough to act irrationally. In the meantime, a thaw with Eritrea — and the powerful military it has posted in the TPLF’s backyard — helps to even out the balance of power, if only by reminding the TPLF hard-liners of how many enemies they have.”

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF), and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

See www.ElizabethKendal.com

Ethiopia-Eritrea: Reforms and Resistance

by Elizabeth Kendal

On Saturday 23 June, a man reportedly dressed in police uniform attempted to throw a grenade towards the speaker’s platform during a pro-government rally in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. Eyewitnesses report that rally attendees grabbed the would-be assassin, and the grenade exploded in his hand. At the time of writing, two are confirmed dead and around 156 wounded, of whom at least six are critical. The rally in Meskel Square was a show of support for Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed Ali (41), and for his radical reform agenda.

Elected in late March by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) four-party coalition, and sworn into office on 2 April, Dr Abiy has hit the ground running. But as the grenade attack indicates, not everyone is pleased.

See: Grenade attack caused blast at rally for PM Abiy Ahmed
Al Jazeera English (VIDEO) 23 June 2018

Ethiopia’s New Prime Minister: Dr Abiy Ahmed Ali

On 15 February, after years of escalating civil unrest and political paralysis, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn submitted his resignation.

Defense and Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy (D&FA, the magazine of the International Strategic Studies Association), Issue 3/2018, assessed the leadership change as having profound and global significance.

“Ethiopia’s ruling EPRDF on March 27, 2018, finally, and with much difficulty, voted for what could be a meaningful change in governmental leadership, but that does not mean incoming Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed Ali, 41, will immediately have his hands on all the levers of power. Security and defense controls seem to remain in the hands of the Tigrean minority which has controlled the EPRDF since 1991. Prime Minister Abiy’s maiden speech galvanized the country.”

English transcript of PM Abiy's maiden speech,
courtesy OPride.com (Oromo Pride is an independent news agency)

In D&FA’s estimation, “The election of Dr Abiy may come to be seen as the most significant strategic shift in the Horn of Africa/Red Sea strategic zone since the coup against Emperor Haile Selassie I in 1974 . . .”

The pro-Soviet Dergue (military junta) that seized power in 1974 systematically dismantled Ethiopian national identity in line with Marxist ideology. And as D&FA explains, it is a wound from which Ethiopia has never recovered, causing Ethiopia to remain internally focused and fractured.

However, D&FA believes that, “Dr Abiy has the potential to reassert Ethiopian unity, in part because he is an Oromo leader” and the Oromo – the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia – has long been the most restive and opposed to the Tigrean control of government.

D&FA makes it clear that the EPRDF coalition did not elect Dr Abiy because he is weak and pliable. To the contrary, when it comes to leadership, Dr Abiy is a rising star. He is a former soldier, having served as a colonel in intelligence and communications. He is also a technocrat and cyber warfare expert. He has a PhD (2017) in conflict resolution . . . and more. D&FA describes his career as “intense”, noting that Dr Abiy, despite his youth, has already served as Minister of Science and Technology (2016-2017), Director of the Federal Science and Technology Information Centre (2013-2016), and Director of the Federal Information Network Security Agency (2007-2010).

D&FA continues, “Dr Abiy, for all that his name reveals his Muslim birth, is a Protestant Christian, having – like many Muslims now associating with the ruling elite in Ethiopia – converted from Islam to Protestant Christianity. So it is interesting that, for all that the Ethiopian Orthodox Church was seen as often subordinating itself to the Government since, essentially, 1974, the EPRDF leadership has itself associated more with Protestantism.”

Dr Abiy was born in 1976 in the restive, Muslim-majority Jimma region of south-western Ethiopia.  The youngest of 13 children, his father was a polygamous Muslim and his mother (the fourth wife) a Christian. Deutsche Welle (DW) notes that when violent unrest erupted between the region’s Muslim and Christian communities, Abiy “actively engaged in a peace forum for reconciliation”. OPride adds: “Abiy completed his Ph.D. at the Institute of Peace and Security Studies of Addis Ababa University with his doctoral thesis entitled ‘Social Capital and its Role in Traditional Conflict Resolution in Ethiopia: The Case of Inter-Religious Conflict in Jimma Zone.’ His dissertation was built around the work he had done in a government led mission to resolve conflicts between Christian and Muslim communities in his hometown of Beshasha.”

Dr Abiy is married with three daughters.

For a more detailed profile see: 10 quick facts about Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed,  OPride.com.

Radical Reforms

Prime Minister Abiy’s reforms are causing alarm among those invested in the status quo; consequently, resistance is to be expected.

In power for less than three months, PM Abiy has already removed Ethiopia’s intelligence and military chiefs along with the national security advisor and several other older government officials. “These people have been in the system for far too long and are by and large blamed by the public for the problems,” said Awol Allo, an Ethiopian commentator who teaches law in Britain. “My worry is that he’s moving too fast in a country without the institutional safeguards to implement these policies.”

PM Abiy has also made moves to liberalise the economy, privatizing key state-run industries – among them Ethiopian Airlines and Ethio Telecom – industries in which many EPRDF elites are believed to be entrenched. Such big reforms carry big risks.

Further to this, he has lifted the state of emergency and released thousands of political prisoners.

Peace with Eritrea

One of PM Abiy’s most controversial moves – and the one that would be of the most interest to religious liberty observers and analysts – is his move to make peace with Eritrea.

click on map to enlarge

Between 1998 and 2000, an estimated 80,000 soldiers died fighting over the Ethiopian-Eritrea border. The conflict ended in December 2000 after a peace accord known as the Algiers Agreement was signed by both parties. In 2002 the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) issued its final and binding ruling on the border. The EEBC awarded “Badme” – a town with a population of a little over 1500 – “and its environs” to Eritrea, and ordered Ethiopia to end its occupation, dismantle its illegal settlements and withdraw its troops to Ethiopian territory. Ethiopia rejected the ruling and continued its occupation of the disputed territory. Ever since then, the two states have existed in a state of “no war, no peace”.

On Tuesday 5 June 2018, Stratfor Global Intelligence reported: “After years of bad blood, Ethiopia is taking steps to mend fences and reach an agreement on its shared border with Eritrea. On June 5, Ethiopia’s ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, opted to accept an agreement that would give Badme, a town on the border, to Eritrea. If Ethiopia follows through, the move could help settle some of the differences between the two archrivals on the Horn of Africa.”

Badme

Video reports:
Disputed border to of Badme to be recognised as Eritrean territory
CGTN Africa, 6 Jun 2018

Ethiopia accepts peace deal with longtime rival Eritrea
France 24, 6 June 2018

In announcing the move to pursue peace, PM Abiy explained: “All that we have achieved from the situation of the last 20 years is tension. Neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea benefit from a stalemate. We need to expend all our efforts towards peace and reconciliation and extricate ourselves from petty conflicts and divisions and focus on eliminating poverty.”

PM Abiy rejected the characterisation of relations between the two countries as a “no war no peace” situation, arguing that the psychological burden and the endless antagonism means that the two states are in reality, still in a state of war. “Every Ethiopian should realise,” he said, “that it is expected of us to be a responsible government that ensures stability in our region, one that takes the initiative to connect the brotherly peoples of both countries and expands trains, buses, and economic ties between Asmara [the Eritrean capital] and Addis Ababa.”

But as Ludger Schadomsky, the head of DW’s Amharic Service, observes, Abiy’s reforms have not been welcomed in all corridors of power. In particular, “he has alienated powerful people in the security and military establishment who view his recent peace initiative vis-a-vis Eritrea with great scepticism”.

political map
click on map to enlarge

Indeed, PM Abiy’s peace overture is eliciting strong resistance from the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a political party which forms part of the ruling EPRDF four-party coalition, and which has dominated government for decades. The move is also opposed by Ethiopian veterans of the war and other Tigrayan settlers living in Badme as well as ethnic Tigrayans living in Tigray province, along the Eritrean border.

It goes without saying though, that peace with Eritrea would radically transform the security situation in the Horn of Africa. Indeed, the implications of peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea are absolutely enormous. And as Al-Jazeera notes, the ball is now in Eritrea’s court. 

Eritrea and its President, Isaias Afwerki

Eritrea is one of the world’s most repressive states and its president, Isaias Afwerki, is one of the world’s cruellest dictators. Eritrea is also one of the world’s most severe persecutors of Christians, in particular Protestant Christians, thousands of whom have suffered appalling abuse and inhumane mistreatment, including torture, in Eritrea’s prisons and desert camps. The state generates thousands of refugees per month, many of whom are Christian [RLPB 235 (6 Nov 2013)].

All secondary school students must complete their compulsory military service in order to graduate. Yet while in military service, these teenagers are abused and mistreated, their Bibles are confiscated, and unrepentant believers (in particular Protestants) are beaten and tortured.

Of those who have fled, thousands have become stranded in camps in Sudan or Libya, while others have fallen prey to human traffickers who sell them to terrorists who then hold them in bunkers in the Sinai desert where they are tortured for ransom [RLPB 205 (10 April 2013)].

For more details on persecution of Christians see:
Religious Liberty Monitoring: Eritrea 
World Watch Monitoring: Eritrea
Morning Star News: Eritrea
Submission to CCPR by Christian Solidarity Worldwide (CSW) April 2018

Critically, Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki legitimises his repression and the cruelty on the pretext that the war with Ethiopia never really ended, and as such, Eritrea must remain on a permanent war footing and in a permanent state of emergency.

Unsurprisingly, Afwerki – who has been Eritrea’s president since independence (1993) – is not rushing to embrace PM Abiy’s peace overture.

Marcos Hailemariam (not his real name), an Eritrean refugee living in Addis Ababa told The Ethiopian Herald that he suspects the Eritrean regime will either ignore Abiy’s overture or find an excuse to discount it.“First of all,” he said, “the no war no peace situation is one of the pretexts the regime uses to extend its life span as a dictatorial regime. If the tension between the nations is solved the people would raise various questions against the dictatorial regime.”

The analysts at the ERI platform agree, suggesting that PM Abiy’s move could “pull the rug from under Isaias’ feet”.

“Removing this state of no peace, no war denies him [Afwerki] the pretext of national security and puts Isaias in a dilemma – either way, it could be the beginning of the end of the unravelling of his dictatorship. The fact that he is unable or unwilling to respond in kind is likely a reflection of that concern. . .

“He [Afwerki] is probably afraid that either way would spell his undoing. He is facing a dilemma, because that could be the beginning of the end of his regime. With an end to the state of no war, no peace in sight, there would be no excuse for business as usual for the regime.”

See: The Missing Facts in the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Debate
ERI Platform, 12 June 2018

It took Afwerki two weeks to respond to Abiy’s offer and to confirm that Eritrea will send officials to Addis Ababa to “gauge current developments directly and in depth”.

On Wednesday 20 June, Stratfor Global Intelligence reported: “Dynamics in East Africa have the potential to change dramatically in the near future. After weeks of silence, Eritrea’s reclusive president, Isaias Afwerki, finally weighed in on June 5 reports that Ethiopia could give disputed territory to its longtime enemy. During Eritrea’s Martyrs Day, Afwerki stated that the recent events in Ethiopia warranted attention and that his country would send a delegation to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, to discuss potential cooperation.

“While seemingly insignificant on the surface, the move from Afwerki is likely borne of desperation. The president has justified his decades long grip on power by claiming that Ethiopia wanted to wipe his Red Sea country off the map. Indeed, Eritrea’s political and economic systems have largely revolved around the need to maintain a huge military apparatus that is capable of going toe-to-toe with Ethiopia. However, Afwerki slowly transformed that system into one that perpetuates his rule, and he has used illicit activities to buy support from military elites.

“Addis Ababa’s decision to flip the script has, at least temporarily, called into question the narrative that Ethiopia presents an existential threat. Because of this, Afwerki is compelled to at least appear willing to hear out the Ethiopians to appease his people and avoid potential protests. But luckily for Afwerki, there are also signs that hard-liners in Addis Ababa may be prepared to fight the reforms that new Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is pushing. For example, the key party in Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front [TPLF], recently voiced its concern over the recent zeal for reform and said more deliberations were necessary. In the context of Ethiopia’s politics, this likely means the hard-liners are preparing to bite back to reassert control and ensure they continue to profit from the regional rivalry.” (emphasis mine)

Resistance Escalates 

Biting Back: PM Abiy’s radical reforms and the resistance they are eliciting, provide the context for the 23 June grenade attack in Meskel Square, Addis Ababa. Thirty people have since been arrested over the attack along with nine policemen accused of gross negligence.

The blast has sent shock-waves through the country. Mohammed Ademo, political commentator and founder of OPride.com, told Al-Jazeera, “Abiy’s effort to move the country forward has angered those who for a very long time maintained a stronghold on the country’s politics and economy. They are trying to scare people and undermine the prime minister so they can send a signal that he is not capable of stabilizing the country. Many Ethiopians are shocked that people would go to such lengths to stop what they [many Ethiopians] see as a really positive move – the reforms they say this country really needs.”

Reasserting Control: Further to this, on 24 April, World Watch Monitor reported that, “Ethiopia’s northern Tigray State is considering adopting a new law that would restrict Christian activities to within official [Ethiopian Orthodox] church compounds. . .

“A similar law was recently ratified in neighbouring Amhara State which, together with Tigray, is home to most members of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, and local church leaders fear other states will copy the move.”

PM Abiy's radical reforms -- especially his peace overture with Eritrea -- are infuriating Tigrayans, (especially those in the TPLF) and threatening powerful people who profit from the status quo. In this context, it is highly likely that this move by the governing authorities in Tigray and Amhara regions is not religious policy so much as it is reactionary politics. It would be interesting to know what the Ethiopian Orthodox Church's position is on such an unconstitutional law (see Article 11), one that in some ways mimics Eritrean policy. It is a move the central government will surely challenge, hopefully before too many Ethiopian Protestants are negatively impacted.

END

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Elizabeth Kendal is an international religious liberty analyst and advocate. She serves as Director of Advocacy at Canberra-based Christian Faith and Freedom (CFF), and is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at Melbourne School of Theology.

She has authored two books: Turn Back the Battle: Isaiah Speaks to Christians Today (Deror Books, Melbourne, Australia, Dec 2012) which offers a Biblical response to persecution and existential threat; and After Saturday Comes Sunday: Understanding the Christian Crisis in the Middle East (Wipf and Stock, Eugene, OR, USA, June 2016).

See www.ElizabethKendal.com